With only three matches remaining for the Gunners, the title race is very much open. Arsenal boosted their credentials on May 2 with a dominant 3-0 victory over Fulham at the Emirates Stadium, keeping their goal difference at a healthy plus 41. However, the pressure remains high because Manchester City has shown relentless form. Pep Guardiola’s men still have 12 potential points to play for across their final four games, meaning they could reach a maximum of 83 points. Arsenal can reach a maximum of 85 points if they win their remaining three fixtures.
The path to the trophy for Arsenal includes a challenging trip to the London Stadium to face West Ham United on May 10, followed by a home game against Burnley on May 18. The season concludes with a high stakes visit to Selhurst Park to face Crystal Palace on May 24. For Arsenal to guarantee their first league title since 2004 without relying on other results, they must secure at least eight points from their final three games, though three wins would effectively seal the crown regardless of Manchester City’s perfect finish.
Manchester City faces a congested final schedule that includes matches against Brentford and Bournemouth, alongside an FA Cup final commitment. This fixture pileup is seen as a potential stumbling block for the defending champions. Additionally, the race for European spots is aiding Arsenal’s cause, as teams like Brentford and Bournemouth are still fighting for a top six finish, which now potentially offers Champions League football following Aston Villa’s progression to the Europa League final.
The technical statistics favor Arsenal’s defensive stability this season, having conceded only 26 goals in 35 matches. However, Manchester City’s psychological edge from a 2-1 head to head victory over Arsenal in April ensures that the Gunners cannot afford a single slip up. The equation is clear for the final weeks of May: if Arsenal wins their remaining three matches, they will be crowned Premier League champions, but any dropped points will open the door for a clinical Manchester City side to snatch the title on the final day.